Key developments during the week
•India Apr CPI farm labourer inflation 7.84% vs 6.84% Mar
•Govt hikes General Provident Fund rate to 8.8% from 8.6%
• Govt ups Special Deposit Scheme interest rate to 8.8% from 8.6%
• Rupee falls to new all‐time low of 56.27 vs 56.15.
• Goldman Sachs cuts India FY13 GDP forecast to 6.6% from 7.2%
• India adds 6.49 mln GSM mobile users in Apr vs 6.87 mln Mar
• HCL Tech to provide production, content mgmt svcs to UBM Canon
• GAIL signs gas purchase agreement with Turkmenistan
• NTPC commissions unit 5 of Rihand super thermal power plant
• Dabur to foray into sun protection cream mkt with Uveda Sun Block
• Havells' Europe arm ties up 77.5 mln euro to refinance term loan
• Delhi HC reserves judgement in Indraprastha Gas vs PNGRB case
• NMDC inks pact with Rashtriya Ispat for pellet unit at Vizag
• Source says Kavveri Telecom in exclusive talks to acquire US co
• Tech Mahindra launches 1 more delivery, development centre in Noida
• ScotiaMocatta official sees India gold imports dn 20‐25% in 2012
Domestic events week ahead
• May 31: GDP estimates for Jan‐Mar and revised estimates for 2011‐12, by CSO.
• May 31: Government finances for 2011‐12 (Apr‐Mar) and April, by CGA.
• May 31: CPI for industrial workers for April, by Labour Ministry.
• Jun 1: Manufacturing PMI for May, by HSBC.
• Jun 1: Trade data for April, by commerce and industry ministry.
• Jun 1: Automobile sales data for May, by SIAM.
• Jun 1: Cement production, despatches in May, by CMA.
Global events week ahead
• May 29 : German Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) m‐o‐m
• May 30 : Retail PMI of Europe
• May 31 : German Retail Sales m‐o‐m, Prelim GDP q‐o‐q, Crude Oil Inventories & Unemployment Claims of US
• June 1 : Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index of Europe, Unemployment Rate of Europe, Unemployment Rate & ISM Manufacturing PMI of US
Weekly Sector Outlook and Stock Picks
Auto sector ‐ Down this week; Tata Motors, M&M results eyed
Auto stocks are likely to remain flat‐to‐weak in the next five trading sessions. The recent steep hike in petrol prices and weakening of the rupee against dollar is likely to weigh on shares of automobile companies this week. On Wednesday,state‐owned oil marketing companies hiked petrol prices by 11.5%, or 7.54‐7.98 rupees per ltr. The auto counter will also take cues from the earnings of two major automakers in the coming week, with Tata Motors Ltd reporting its Jan‐Mar earnings on May 29 and Mahindra & Mahindra announcing quarterly earnings on May 30. "The sales numbers for May due on Friday will also determine the trend for the stocks.
Pharma sector – Seen volatile this week on May F&O expiry
Shares of pharmaceutical stocks are seen remaining volatile this week as the May series of derivates expiry on Thursdaywould keep the broad market fickle. Pharmaceutical counters will also track the movement of rupee. Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, the Israeli subsidiary of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, has reported a net profit of $47.3 mln in the quarter‐ended March, up 84% from a year ago. Besides Taro's success, Sun Pharma's US business is seen getting a major
boost from sales of high‐margin cancer drug, generic Lipidox, in the quarter gone by. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries will declare its Jan‐Mar earnings on May 29. The stock is also likely to get upbeat following the approval for generic Azelastine hydrochloride from the US Food and Drug Administration. For other major pharmaceutical companies, apart from the broad market's drive, the movement will be news driven. Also, the Group of Minister's decision on the National
Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy would impact pharmaceutical counters. The GoM seeks to regulate prices of 348 essential drugs and its combinations sold across the country. The panel had earlier met in April‐end, but had deferred its decision on capping the prices of essential medicines due to lack of consensus among stakeholders and the ministries concerned. Also, a recent report said around 500 pharmaceutical companies, which were sent notice by the Department of
Pharmaceuticals to furnish the overcharged amount of drugs as per their estimates, might have to pay a collective penalty
Capital Goods sector ‐ Seen volatile in line with market
Shares of capital goods and engineering companies are likely to remain volatile in the week in line with the market, where traders are likely to roll over positions to the June derivatives series from the May series ahead of the latter's expiry Thursday. Shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd will be in focus as the company posted a higher‐than‐estimated net loss of 300 cr rupees. Although trading in these shares is seen choppy in the next few sessions. of 40 bln rupees for not responding to the notices.
FMCG Sector ‐ To regain value as broad market seen weak
Shares of fast‐moving consumer goods companies are seen regaining value in the week ahead, as investors are seen returning to the FMCG category owing to continued broad market weakness. In the past week, all major FMCG shares, except for Marico, lost 0.7‐3.2% value. Even the BSE's FMCG index lost 2.3% at a time when broader markets managed to remain more or less flat, with the National Stock Exchange's Nifty index and the BSE's Sensex gaining 0.6% and 0.4%,
respectively. The fundamental demand for FMCG products continues to be strong; companies having a dominant portfolio in the foods segment are seen growing more than those having exposure to home and personal care products owing to favourable macroeconomic factors such as demography and under‐penetration of products.
Cement Sector ‐ Seen range‐bound this week; sales data eyed
Shares of major cement companies are seen trading range‐bound this week amid lack of any sector‐specific triggers.Investors will wait for monthly despatch data on Friday to take further view on the sector. There may be a negative bias inanticipation of price cuts by cement companies in the coming week as monsoon sets in. Cons truction activity in the country typically halts during the rainy season. Prices in north have declined by 5‐20 rupees per (50‐kg) bag led by subdued demand on account of disruption in the supply of construction materials and shortage of labour. Cement makers are also likely to get hit due to a sand mining ban by Punjab and Haryana from Apr 1. Street is also likely to keep a close eye on the government's decision on fuel pricing. A rise in prices of diesel is viewed as negative for the sector, as it will increase the transportation cost for cement companies. Additionally, shares of cement makers are likely to remain under pressure on expectations that the Competition Commission of India, which is investigating allegations of price rigging by companies, may announce its order soon. As such, shares of cement companies have taken a beating.
IT Sector ‐ Seen range‐bound this week; global cues eyed
Shares of major information technology companies are likely to trade range‐bound this week amid lack of strong sectorspecific triggers. There may be a negative bias, as investors remain cautious after negative global news that came in last week. California‐based IT major, Hewlett Packard Co, Thursday raised concerns over the business outlook in Europe and the US. HP has cut its full‐year guidance for revenue per share to at least $4 per share from $4.84 earlier. It also plans to
lay off around 27,000 employees by the end of 2014. Additionally, software exporters, which were rejoicing with every fall in the rupee against the dollar, are now a worried lot as the extreme volatility in the rupee makes it difficult for them to plan for the future. "Rupee's depreciation is beneficial for information technology companies. Most major Indian IT companies get around 70% of their revenue from the US.
Oil Sector ‐ PSU retailers may move in narrow range this week
Shares of state‐owned oil marketing companies are seen moving in a narrow range this week as better‐than‐expected Jan‐Mar earnings will support the stocks even as the initial euphoria over the sharp hike in petrol prices fizzles out. Petrol accounts only for a fraction of sales of the oil marketing companies and more than half of the revenue loses are incurred on sale of diesel. The announcement of highest‐ever hike in petrol prices—7.50 rupees for a litre‐‐had raised hopes of a
similar move by the government on prices of regulated fuels. However, the meeting of an empowered group of ministers that was to take place last week to consider a revision in prices in diesel and cooking gas, was cancelled as key allies of the United Progressive Alliance opposed any hike in prices of the politically‐sensitive fuels. If diesel prices are not hiked in the near term it will result in higher consumption of the fuel as petrol is 80% costlier, and compound the revenue losses of the oil retailers in the long term. Meanwhile, crude prices continue to soften and the rupees, too, has made some recovery after hitting an all‐time low of 56.37 for a dollar on Thursday.
Telecom Sector ‐ To take cues from Telecom panel meet on Sat
Telecom stocks this week will take cues from the outcome of the second round of the Telecom Commission meet on Saturday, which will take a final view on the revised recommendations of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. The Telecom Commission, which met on Thursday, last week, deliberated part of the recommendations by the regulator on spectrum auction norms. The commission in its meeting decided that minimum of 10 Mhz of spectrum should be made available for auction, against 5 Mhz recommended by TRAI. The commission also favoured the liberalisation of spectrum. TRAI has suggested a reserve price of 36.22 bln rupees per 1 Mhz of spectrum in the 1800 MHz band at a pan‐India level, which has been termed as exorbitantly "high" by telecom service providers. Bharti Airtel had gained 6% in the last two trading days last week after the company announced that it has acquired 49% stake in Qualcomm's AP's India entities. Bharti Airtel has made an initial investment of approximately $165 mln to acquire 49% interest in Qualcomm AP's India entities that hold broadband wireless licences in Delhi, Mumbai, Haryana, and Kerala. The broad market this week is expected to be volatile on account of the expiry of the May futures and options contracts series Thursday.
Steel Stocks Outlook ‐ Seen rangebound; SAIL Jan‐Mar earnings eyed
Shares of major steel companies are likely to trade in a range with a positive bias this week. Investors will eye the Jan‐Mar earnings of state‐owned Steel Authority of India Ltd. SAIL will report its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday May 29th . However, Steel Minister Beni Prasad Verma has not been very happy with SAIL's performance. He said there has been a drop in the company's sales and even expansion plans are not on track. SAIL hopes to reach 19 mln tn production capacity by March. The company has embarked on a 720‐bln‐rupee expansion to take its steel‐making capacity to 24 mln tn by 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar). The steel industry continues to remain under pressure due to slowdown in domestic and global demand. Steel prices, which had gained during Jan‐Mar this year, have also started falling due to lacklustre demand. The
macroeconomic picture globally remains gloomy, with uncertainty over the European political scenario and slowdown in China. The Indian scenario is bleak too, with industrial production for March falling by 3.5%.
Bank sector‐ Subdued; F&O position rollovers on Thu eyed
Bank stocks are expected to remain subdued in the coming week with investors keeping a close eye on rollovers in May futures and options on Thursday, looking for leads on market appetite for long positions in bank stocks. Although rollovers from May to June derivatives positions are expected in broad market led by Nifty, investors are seen cautious in rolling over bank stock positions. There is a concern that the Reserve bank of India's ability to reduce policy rates has been hindered by the petrol price hike, which is expected to fuel inflation levels and limit growth.
Market Range for Week 4800‐ 5180
NIFTY
Resistance – Nifty facing Resistance level @4950 level above this level it may go up to @5050 &@ 5150 level.
Support ‐ Support comes for market @4880 level for Nifty; below this level Nifty next support @4850 and @4800 will be the major support for Market.
Technical – Last week Nifty opened at 4888 & it made a high of 4956.Last week we have seen some volatile trade with in a range in the market. Nifty made a low of 4803 & closed at 4920.Last week Nifty gain 153 points from its low & on weekly basis it closed at 29 point’s higher. Sensex made a weekly high of 16366 & a low of 15847 almost it gain 519 points in the week from its low.So overall last week we have seen some volatile trade with in very narrow range.
For the coming week the market range we expect 4800‐5180.
Weekly View –
Last week we had expected market range (4750‐5150) & market made a high of 4956 & made a low of 4803, so overall it hold over both side range. In last week report we had mentioned, on daily chart market was below short term moving averages, but osilator was in oversold position.On weekly chart market was below downward sloping line, but it was above 200WMA & long term trendline, because of all that we had mentioned we can see some oversold rally & major
resistacne will be 4950‐4960 & all we have seen same. Now on daily chart nifty made a “Morning Star” formation & osilator showing some oversold position, but facing resistance on lower channel line.On weekly chart taking support around 200WMA & still holding long term trendline, so overall if market close above 4950‐4960 we can see some upside movement in the market up to 5050‐5080‐5120 & downside 4850‐4800 can act as a good support.Next week F&O expiry
is also there so we can see some volatility in the market
On Friday, the Dow lost 75 points, or 0.6%. The S&P500 slid 03 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq fell 02 points, or 0.1%. Despite the weakness on Friday, all three indexes posted gains for the week, snapping a three‐week losing streak. The Dow gained 0.7%, the S&P500 rose 1.7% & the Nasdaq added 2.1%.
Market Commentary-
The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near‐month May 2012 series to June 2012 series.The May 2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, 31 May 2012
The government will announce Q4 March 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, 31 May 2012. The Indian economy expanded 6.1% in the October‐December quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace of expansion in more than two years, hurt by slower growth in manufacturing output and a contraction in mining production.
Automobile and cement shares will be in focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales volume data for May 2012 from Friday, 1 June 2012.
HSBC's monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI), which indicates the health of the manufacturing sector, is likely to be released next week. The HSBC India PMI, compiled by Markit, rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March.
Important Results ‐ Balramchin, Fortis, Coalindia, IOC, NFL, NMDC, ONGC, Auropharma, GMRInfra, SAIL, Tatamotors, Colpal, DLF, Gail, KFA, M&M, RCF, Mphasis.
•India Apr CPI farm labourer inflation 7.84% vs 6.84% Mar
•Govt hikes General Provident Fund rate to 8.8% from 8.6%
• Govt ups Special Deposit Scheme interest rate to 8.8% from 8.6%
• Rupee falls to new all‐time low of 56.27 vs 56.15.
• Goldman Sachs cuts India FY13 GDP forecast to 6.6% from 7.2%
• India adds 6.49 mln GSM mobile users in Apr vs 6.87 mln Mar
• HCL Tech to provide production, content mgmt svcs to UBM Canon
• GAIL signs gas purchase agreement with Turkmenistan
• NTPC commissions unit 5 of Rihand super thermal power plant
• Dabur to foray into sun protection cream mkt with Uveda Sun Block
• Havells' Europe arm ties up 77.5 mln euro to refinance term loan
• Delhi HC reserves judgement in Indraprastha Gas vs PNGRB case
• NMDC inks pact with Rashtriya Ispat for pellet unit at Vizag
• Source says Kavveri Telecom in exclusive talks to acquire US co
• Tech Mahindra launches 1 more delivery, development centre in Noida
• ScotiaMocatta official sees India gold imports dn 20‐25% in 2012
Domestic events week ahead
• May 31: GDP estimates for Jan‐Mar and revised estimates for 2011‐12, by CSO.
• May 31: Government finances for 2011‐12 (Apr‐Mar) and April, by CGA.
• May 31: CPI for industrial workers for April, by Labour Ministry.
• Jun 1: Manufacturing PMI for May, by HSBC.
• Jun 1: Trade data for April, by commerce and industry ministry.
• Jun 1: Automobile sales data for May, by SIAM.
• Jun 1: Cement production, despatches in May, by CMA.
Global events week ahead
• May 29 : German Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) m‐o‐m
• May 30 : Retail PMI of Europe
• May 31 : German Retail Sales m‐o‐m, Prelim GDP q‐o‐q, Crude Oil Inventories & Unemployment Claims of US
• June 1 : Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index of Europe, Unemployment Rate of Europe, Unemployment Rate & ISM Manufacturing PMI of US
Weekly Sector Outlook and Stock Picks
Auto sector ‐ Down this week; Tata Motors, M&M results eyed
Auto stocks are likely to remain flat‐to‐weak in the next five trading sessions. The recent steep hike in petrol prices and weakening of the rupee against dollar is likely to weigh on shares of automobile companies this week. On Wednesday,state‐owned oil marketing companies hiked petrol prices by 11.5%, or 7.54‐7.98 rupees per ltr. The auto counter will also take cues from the earnings of two major automakers in the coming week, with Tata Motors Ltd reporting its Jan‐Mar earnings on May 29 and Mahindra & Mahindra announcing quarterly earnings on May 30. "The sales numbers for May due on Friday will also determine the trend for the stocks.
Pharma sector – Seen volatile this week on May F&O expiry
Shares of pharmaceutical stocks are seen remaining volatile this week as the May series of derivates expiry on Thursdaywould keep the broad market fickle. Pharmaceutical counters will also track the movement of rupee. Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, the Israeli subsidiary of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, has reported a net profit of $47.3 mln in the quarter‐ended March, up 84% from a year ago. Besides Taro's success, Sun Pharma's US business is seen getting a major
boost from sales of high‐margin cancer drug, generic Lipidox, in the quarter gone by. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries will declare its Jan‐Mar earnings on May 29. The stock is also likely to get upbeat following the approval for generic Azelastine hydrochloride from the US Food and Drug Administration. For other major pharmaceutical companies, apart from the broad market's drive, the movement will be news driven. Also, the Group of Minister's decision on the National
Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy would impact pharmaceutical counters. The GoM seeks to regulate prices of 348 essential drugs and its combinations sold across the country. The panel had earlier met in April‐end, but had deferred its decision on capping the prices of essential medicines due to lack of consensus among stakeholders and the ministries concerned. Also, a recent report said around 500 pharmaceutical companies, which were sent notice by the Department of
Pharmaceuticals to furnish the overcharged amount of drugs as per their estimates, might have to pay a collective penalty
Capital Goods sector ‐ Seen volatile in line with market
Shares of capital goods and engineering companies are likely to remain volatile in the week in line with the market, where traders are likely to roll over positions to the June derivatives series from the May series ahead of the latter's expiry Thursday. Shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd will be in focus as the company posted a higher‐than‐estimated net loss of 300 cr rupees. Although trading in these shares is seen choppy in the next few sessions. of 40 bln rupees for not responding to the notices.
FMCG Sector ‐ To regain value as broad market seen weak
Shares of fast‐moving consumer goods companies are seen regaining value in the week ahead, as investors are seen returning to the FMCG category owing to continued broad market weakness. In the past week, all major FMCG shares, except for Marico, lost 0.7‐3.2% value. Even the BSE's FMCG index lost 2.3% at a time when broader markets managed to remain more or less flat, with the National Stock Exchange's Nifty index and the BSE's Sensex gaining 0.6% and 0.4%,
respectively. The fundamental demand for FMCG products continues to be strong; companies having a dominant portfolio in the foods segment are seen growing more than those having exposure to home and personal care products owing to favourable macroeconomic factors such as demography and under‐penetration of products.
Cement Sector ‐ Seen range‐bound this week; sales data eyed
Shares of major cement companies are seen trading range‐bound this week amid lack of any sector‐specific triggers.Investors will wait for monthly despatch data on Friday to take further view on the sector. There may be a negative bias inanticipation of price cuts by cement companies in the coming week as monsoon sets in. Cons truction activity in the country typically halts during the rainy season. Prices in north have declined by 5‐20 rupees per (50‐kg) bag led by subdued demand on account of disruption in the supply of construction materials and shortage of labour. Cement makers are also likely to get hit due to a sand mining ban by Punjab and Haryana from Apr 1. Street is also likely to keep a close eye on the government's decision on fuel pricing. A rise in prices of diesel is viewed as negative for the sector, as it will increase the transportation cost for cement companies. Additionally, shares of cement makers are likely to remain under pressure on expectations that the Competition Commission of India, which is investigating allegations of price rigging by companies, may announce its order soon. As such, shares of cement companies have taken a beating.
IT Sector ‐ Seen range‐bound this week; global cues eyed
Shares of major information technology companies are likely to trade range‐bound this week amid lack of strong sectorspecific triggers. There may be a negative bias, as investors remain cautious after negative global news that came in last week. California‐based IT major, Hewlett Packard Co, Thursday raised concerns over the business outlook in Europe and the US. HP has cut its full‐year guidance for revenue per share to at least $4 per share from $4.84 earlier. It also plans to
lay off around 27,000 employees by the end of 2014. Additionally, software exporters, which were rejoicing with every fall in the rupee against the dollar, are now a worried lot as the extreme volatility in the rupee makes it difficult for them to plan for the future. "Rupee's depreciation is beneficial for information technology companies. Most major Indian IT companies get around 70% of their revenue from the US.
Oil Sector ‐ PSU retailers may move in narrow range this week
Shares of state‐owned oil marketing companies are seen moving in a narrow range this week as better‐than‐expected Jan‐Mar earnings will support the stocks even as the initial euphoria over the sharp hike in petrol prices fizzles out. Petrol accounts only for a fraction of sales of the oil marketing companies and more than half of the revenue loses are incurred on sale of diesel. The announcement of highest‐ever hike in petrol prices—7.50 rupees for a litre‐‐had raised hopes of a
similar move by the government on prices of regulated fuels. However, the meeting of an empowered group of ministers that was to take place last week to consider a revision in prices in diesel and cooking gas, was cancelled as key allies of the United Progressive Alliance opposed any hike in prices of the politically‐sensitive fuels. If diesel prices are not hiked in the near term it will result in higher consumption of the fuel as petrol is 80% costlier, and compound the revenue losses of the oil retailers in the long term. Meanwhile, crude prices continue to soften and the rupees, too, has made some recovery after hitting an all‐time low of 56.37 for a dollar on Thursday.
Telecom Sector ‐ To take cues from Telecom panel meet on Sat
Telecom stocks this week will take cues from the outcome of the second round of the Telecom Commission meet on Saturday, which will take a final view on the revised recommendations of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. The Telecom Commission, which met on Thursday, last week, deliberated part of the recommendations by the regulator on spectrum auction norms. The commission in its meeting decided that minimum of 10 Mhz of spectrum should be made available for auction, against 5 Mhz recommended by TRAI. The commission also favoured the liberalisation of spectrum. TRAI has suggested a reserve price of 36.22 bln rupees per 1 Mhz of spectrum in the 1800 MHz band at a pan‐India level, which has been termed as exorbitantly "high" by telecom service providers. Bharti Airtel had gained 6% in the last two trading days last week after the company announced that it has acquired 49% stake in Qualcomm's AP's India entities. Bharti Airtel has made an initial investment of approximately $165 mln to acquire 49% interest in Qualcomm AP's India entities that hold broadband wireless licences in Delhi, Mumbai, Haryana, and Kerala. The broad market this week is expected to be volatile on account of the expiry of the May futures and options contracts series Thursday.
Steel Stocks Outlook ‐ Seen rangebound; SAIL Jan‐Mar earnings eyed
Shares of major steel companies are likely to trade in a range with a positive bias this week. Investors will eye the Jan‐Mar earnings of state‐owned Steel Authority of India Ltd. SAIL will report its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday May 29th . However, Steel Minister Beni Prasad Verma has not been very happy with SAIL's performance. He said there has been a drop in the company's sales and even expansion plans are not on track. SAIL hopes to reach 19 mln tn production capacity by March. The company has embarked on a 720‐bln‐rupee expansion to take its steel‐making capacity to 24 mln tn by 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar). The steel industry continues to remain under pressure due to slowdown in domestic and global demand. Steel prices, which had gained during Jan‐Mar this year, have also started falling due to lacklustre demand. The
macroeconomic picture globally remains gloomy, with uncertainty over the European political scenario and slowdown in China. The Indian scenario is bleak too, with industrial production for March falling by 3.5%.
Bank sector‐ Subdued; F&O position rollovers on Thu eyed
Bank stocks are expected to remain subdued in the coming week with investors keeping a close eye on rollovers in May futures and options on Thursday, looking for leads on market appetite for long positions in bank stocks. Although rollovers from May to June derivatives positions are expected in broad market led by Nifty, investors are seen cautious in rolling over bank stock positions. There is a concern that the Reserve bank of India's ability to reduce policy rates has been hindered by the petrol price hike, which is expected to fuel inflation levels and limit growth.
Market Range for Week 4800‐ 5180
NIFTY
Resistance – Nifty facing Resistance level @4950 level above this level it may go up to @5050 &@ 5150 level.
Support ‐ Support comes for market @4880 level for Nifty; below this level Nifty next support @4850 and @4800 will be the major support for Market.
Technical – Last week Nifty opened at 4888 & it made a high of 4956.Last week we have seen some volatile trade with in a range in the market. Nifty made a low of 4803 & closed at 4920.Last week Nifty gain 153 points from its low & on weekly basis it closed at 29 point’s higher. Sensex made a weekly high of 16366 & a low of 15847 almost it gain 519 points in the week from its low.So overall last week we have seen some volatile trade with in very narrow range.
For the coming week the market range we expect 4800‐5180.
Weekly View –
Last week we had expected market range (4750‐5150) & market made a high of 4956 & made a low of 4803, so overall it hold over both side range. In last week report we had mentioned, on daily chart market was below short term moving averages, but osilator was in oversold position.On weekly chart market was below downward sloping line, but it was above 200WMA & long term trendline, because of all that we had mentioned we can see some oversold rally & major
resistacne will be 4950‐4960 & all we have seen same. Now on daily chart nifty made a “Morning Star” formation & osilator showing some oversold position, but facing resistance on lower channel line.On weekly chart taking support around 200WMA & still holding long term trendline, so overall if market close above 4950‐4960 we can see some upside movement in the market up to 5050‐5080‐5120 & downside 4850‐4800 can act as a good support.Next week F&O expiry
is also there so we can see some volatility in the market
On Friday, the Dow lost 75 points, or 0.6%. The S&P500 slid 03 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq fell 02 points, or 0.1%. Despite the weakness on Friday, all three indexes posted gains for the week, snapping a three‐week losing streak. The Dow gained 0.7%, the S&P500 rose 1.7% & the Nasdaq added 2.1%.
Market Commentary-
The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near‐month May 2012 series to June 2012 series.The May 2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, 31 May 2012
The government will announce Q4 March 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, 31 May 2012. The Indian economy expanded 6.1% in the October‐December quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace of expansion in more than two years, hurt by slower growth in manufacturing output and a contraction in mining production.
Automobile and cement shares will be in focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales volume data for May 2012 from Friday, 1 June 2012.
HSBC's monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI), which indicates the health of the manufacturing sector, is likely to be released next week. The HSBC India PMI, compiled by Markit, rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March.
Important Results ‐ Balramchin, Fortis, Coalindia, IOC, NFL, NMDC, ONGC, Auropharma, GMRInfra, SAIL, Tatamotors, Colpal, DLF, Gail, KFA, M&M, RCF, Mphasis.
