Key developments during the week
* India Jan WPI inflation falls to 38‐month low of 6.62%
* Oil cos may decide petrol price hike Fri, diesel may getdelayed
* Govt source says divest dept to move Cabinet note on PSUs ETF soon
* Govt source says Cabinet note moved on BALCO, Hind Zinc shr sale
* Govt says hope to table forward contracts bill in Budget session
* Minister sees subsidy up by 200 bln rupees post food security bill
* Moody's Investors Svc says IOC's Oct‐Dec results better than expected
* Trade minister says hope to sign free trade pact with EU this summer
* GAIL India Oct‐Dec net profit 12.85 bln rupees vs 10.91 bln
* Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Oct‐Dec net loss 11.82 bln rupees
* Indian Oil head says bulk diesel sale down 14‐15% since mid‐Jan
* Infosys' Gopalakrishnan says NASSCOM's FY14 growth aim achievable
* Cadila Health gets US FDA final OK for Pioglitazone HCItablets
* United Breweries says no co shrs pledged to lenders of Kingfisher Air
Domestic events week ahead
*Feb 20: CPI for rural and farm labourers for January, by Labour Bureau.
* Feb 21: Budget session of Parliament to start with President Mukherjee addressing joint session of both houses.
* Feb 23: State assembly elections in Meghalaya and Nagaland.
Global events week ahead
* Feb 19: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
* Feb 20: Japan Trade Balance and All Industries Activity m/m, German PPI m/m, German 10‐y Bond Auction, USBuilding Permits and Core PPI m/m.
* Feb 21: FOMC Meeting Minutes, French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturingand Services PMI, Spanish 10‐y Bond Auction, French 10‐y Bond Auction, US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales
* Feb 21: FOMC Meeting Minutes, French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, Spanish 10‐y Bond Auction, French 10‐y Bond Auction, US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales
Weekly Sector Outlook and Stock Picks
Auto sector ‐ In range with negative bias this week
Shares of frontline automobile companies are expected to move in a narrow range this week due to lack of stock‐specific triggers and in run‐up to the Budget for 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar). Finance Minister P. Chidambaram will announce the Budget on Feb 28. A mild negative reaction in the auto stocks could be seen as oil marketing companies today announced hike in prices of diesel and petrol by nearly 0.5 rupees and 1.5 rupees, respectively.The auto industry that has been facing a slowdown in demand for over a year now has its hopes pinned on the Budgetfor a cut in excise duty and other measures for restoring growth in the sector. It has demanded a cut in excise duty on sub‐four‐metre vehicles to 10% from existing 12% and on larger vehicles to 22% from over 25% now. Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers has also opposed the proposed additional duty on diesel cars, which it feel will ground a segment that is at least doing well in an otherwise subdued environment. The petroleum ministry had proposed a hike
in excise duty on cars run on diesel in a bid reduce the demand for the fuel, which is highly subsidised by the
government.
Capital Goods sector ‐ Seen mixed this week
Shares of capital goods and engineering companies are seen mixed, as investors are seen cherry picking. Investors have already started building positions ahead of the Railway Budget and Union Budget for 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar). Bharat Heavy Electricals, Voltas and Thermax could see some upside due to their attractive valuations, good corporate governance, and strong fundamentals. Performance of these companies has been affected due to macroeconomic headwinds and not on account of weak fundamentals; hence they are likely to improve if the economy catches pace. Havells is also seen as one of the better companies, but its valuations are not as attractive as the others. Investors have mixed views on sector heavyweight Larsen & Toubro. L&T is seen nearing a breakdown in the near term till mega and ultra mega project contracts do not return to the market.
FMCG Sector ‐ Correction seen in large cap stocks this week
Shares of fast moving consumer goods companies that have large market capitalisation are seen correcting downward in the week ahead as current valuations are high following the run up in share prices over the past several weeks. Also, fresh investments in FMCG companies' shares will be limited by the attractiveness of shares of other rate sensitive sectors such as information technology and banks as the interest rate cycle has turned.Majors such as Hindustan Unilever and Godrej Consumer Products are expected to decline as their shares are currently at high values. Mid‐sized companies such as Marico and Emami, on the other hand, are seen relatively safeguarded from margin pressure due to lower raw material cost and as consumers get value‐conscious, substituting premium brands with less expensive ones. ITC may see some pre‐budget correction as a likely hike in excise duty on cigarettes could scare investors away.
Cement Sector ‐ Down this week on lower‐than‐expected demand rise
Shares of major cement companies are likely to trade with a negative bias this week as investors remain worried due to a much‐lower‐than‐expected pickup in demand. Cement demand, which typically picks up in October after a slump during monsoon, has remained subdued amid high interest rates that led to a slowdown in real estate and infrastructureactivity.
Investors had pegged hopes of a revival in demand from real estate sector after the Reserve Bank of India eased policyrates in January. But the nominal 25‐basis‐point cut in repo rate has not led to an improvement in real estate demand.Developers are thus still waiting for interest rates to ease further that would enable them to clear stocks and begin new projects.
Disappointing Oct‐Dec earnings for the top three cement makers—UltraTech Cement, ACC, and Ambuja Cements‐‐has also led to a negative sentiment for the sector. Earnings for the cement heavyweights are not expected to be much better sequentially in Jan‐Mar. Additionally, at the time of announcing Oct‐Dec earnings, all the three top players have said that even as prices of coal have started cooling, increase in diesel and petrol prices will continue to weigh on their margins. Increase in freight and forwarding costs, which dragged down profitability for Oct‐Dec, is also likely to remain a cause of concern in the near future.
IT Sector ‐ In range; cos say NASSCOM growth aim achievable
Shares of information technology companies are seen trading in a range this week as the positive of companies sayingthat the growth guidance set by industry body NASSCOM is achievable, will be offset by the correction following the rise over the past few weeks.
On Tuesday, NASSCOM said it expects Indian IT companies' exports to grow 12‐14% in 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar), against 10.2%in the current financial year, on expectations of higher discretionary spending by clients and improved business environment. In November, NASSCOM had trimmed its growth guidance for 2012‐13 to "around 11%. In 2013‐14, NASSCOM expects Indian IT companies' domestic sales to grow 13‐15%. It expects the industry's exports at $82 bln‐$87 bln and sees domestic revenue rising $12 bln‐$15 bln.
Oil Sector ‐ RIL under pressure this week
Shares of the state‐owned oil marketing companies are likely to remain under pressure this week though they may open slightly positive on Monday after the hike in diesel and petrol price announced. With the weakness in the broader market expected to continue in the run up to the Union Budget to be announced on Feb 28 and crude price remaining firm, traders see little upside from current levels in the shares of Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd. However, these shares may open higher due to a sentimental boost on the nearly 1.5 rupees per litre hike in petrol price and 0.45 rupees per litre hike in diesel price.
Apart from the general weakness in market, the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar may also weigh on these stocks. The Indian currency has depreciated nearly 1.3% against the greenback since last Friday. Shares of Reliance Industries are also expected to see some more correction this week because of weakening global refining outlook.
Steel Sector ‐ Down this week; Tata Steel seen worst hit
Shares of major steel companies are seen down this week weighed down by disappointing Oct‐Dec results. Primary steel producers such as Steel Authority of India Ltd and Tata Steel Ltd reported poor earnings for the quarter ended December. Steel Authority posted a net profit of 4.84 bln rupees, down 23.4% on year. Lower net sales realisation due to subdued market combined with higher finance costs and royalty payments to states on coal proved a drag on the earnings.
Tata Steel reported a consolidated net loss of 7.63 bln rupees, compared with a loss of 6.02 bln rupees a year ago, due to weak performance in domestic operations. A fall in consolidated net sales and other income were also responsible for the loss widening.
Bank sector ‐ No clear trend; stock specific cues to be eyed
With no clear trend visible, bank stocks are seen moving in a tight band on stock‐specific cues in the coming week. Most market participants do not expect any significant moves ahead of the Union Budget announcement on Feb 28.
Central Bank of India and Dhanlaxmi Bank stocks are in focus after both banks announced capital raising programmes after market hours today. While Central Bank of India is set to issue shares on a preferential basis to the government at 78 rupees per share, Dhanlaxmi Bank's shareholders have approved raising 2 bln rupees via a qualified institutional Placement. Banks' stocks will also be in focus on account of the United Forum of Bank Unions announcing a two‐day nationwide strike on Feb 20‐21, which is expected to hit operations across the country, as nearly 1 mln employees in public sector and old private banks are expected to participate. The market continues to remain positive on State Bank of India shares as it believes that the bank is well poised to benefit from any pick up in the economic growth. The bank's tighter asset quality scrutiny and lower restructuring book are seen as key positives. Although SBI's Oct‐Dec net profit
rose just 4% on year, market took heart from segmental details.
Pharma sector ‐ Positive this week on high sales in Jan
The outlook on shares of major pharmaceutical stocks is positive for the coming week mainly on account of January sales being higher compared with a year ago. Sahres of GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd will be eyed as the company is scheduled to detail its Oct‐Dec earnings on Feb 19.
Telecom Sector ‐ Down this week on regulatory overhang
Major telecom stocks are expected to trade with a bearish bias this week as regulatory overhang over the sector remains. According to reports, Bharti Airtel Ltd and Reliance Communications Ltd are expected to be slapped with fresh notices from the Department of Telecommunications soon, demanding additional revenue share. Similar notices have already been served to Vodafone India Ltd. The demand notices would put further strain on the financial health of telecom companies that currently face monetary outgo in billions of rupees on account of high cost of spectrum and one‐time spectrum charge. Investors will eye whether companies would be successful in passing on the increased cost on to the subscribers and narrow down the difference between the headline tariff and the realised tariff.
The headline tariff in the country is in the range of 1.2 rupees to 1.5 rupees per minute, while average realised tariff is about 35 paise per minute on account of several discounts and special tariff offers given by companies to attract subscribers. Idea Cellular has started raising its base tariff across the country gradually and recently did away with some free minutes offering and special discounts. Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications have also reduced free minutes and promotional offers.
Market Range for Week 5980‐ 5800
Resistance – Nifty facing Resistance level @5920 level above this level it may go up to @5950 &@ 5990 level.
Support ‐ Support comes for market @5870 level for Nifty; below thislevel Nifty next support @5850 and @5800 will be the major support for Market.
Technical – Last week Nifty opened at 5920 & it made a high of 5969.Last week we have seen some downside in the market. Nifty made a low of 5853 & closed at 5887.Last week Nifty drag 82 points from its high & on weekly basis it closed at 16 point’s lower. Sensex made a weekly high of 19723 & a low of 19381 almost it drags 342 points in the week from its high.So overall last week we have seen some selling from higher level.
Weekly Chart View –
Last week we had expected market range (6020‐5800) market made a high of 5969 & low of 5853 so it hold our both side range.
In last week report we had mentioned, on daily chart market was below 50DMA & below trendline.On weekly chart osilator was showing negative divergens & it was below upward slopping line, because of all that we had mentioned use caution approach at higher level.Now on daily chart market below 50DMA but taking support at 100DMA & osilator showing some oversold position.On weekly chart market taking support short term moving avg on 20WMA, but below trendline & osilator still showing negative divergens.So overall 5870‐5850 will be major support for market unless we did not get close below that
we can see some consolidation, but close below that we can see some more downside in the market & upside still 5950‐5990 will be major resistance in the market
On Friday The S&P500 & the Nasdaq dipped between 0.1% & 0.2%, while the Dow cloded just barely higher.All three indexes were down slightly for the week, marking the first losing week for the Nasdaq this year.
Market Commentary –
The market could see more consolidation next week as investors turn cautious ahead of the Union Budget 2013‐14 to be presented in the Parliament on 28 February 2013. Investors will focus on changes, if any, in excise duty and service tax in the Budget. It remains to be seen if the government announces measures to revive weak investment growth. It also remains to be seen if the government announces more economic reforms. A key figure to watch out is the divestment Target for 2013‐14. It remains to be seen if the Budget contains a clear roadmap for the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST). There has been some debate over taxing the super‐rich. It remains to be seen if the Budget provides a clear roadmap to cap the government's subsidy bill. It also remains to be seen if there are measures to increase agriculture production to rein in food inflation.
The finance ministry in October 2012 announced a five‐year plan to cut fiscal deficit. The deficit target is 5.3% of gross domestic product for the current fiscal year through March, 4.8% in the next fiscal year, and 3% by the end of the year through March 2017.
The Budget Session of the Parliament will commence on 21 February 2013 and is likely to conclude on 10 May 2013. In order to enable the Standing Committees to consider the Demands for Grants of Ministries/Departments and prepare their Reports, the two Houses will adjourn for recess on 22 March 2013 to meet again on 22 April 2013.
* India Jan WPI inflation falls to 38‐month low of 6.62%
* Oil cos may decide petrol price hike Fri, diesel may getdelayed
* Govt source says divest dept to move Cabinet note on PSUs ETF soon
* Govt source says Cabinet note moved on BALCO, Hind Zinc shr sale
* Govt says hope to table forward contracts bill in Budget session
* Minister sees subsidy up by 200 bln rupees post food security bill
* Moody's Investors Svc says IOC's Oct‐Dec results better than expected
* Trade minister says hope to sign free trade pact with EU this summer
* GAIL India Oct‐Dec net profit 12.85 bln rupees vs 10.91 bln
* Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Oct‐Dec net loss 11.82 bln rupees
* Indian Oil head says bulk diesel sale down 14‐15% since mid‐Jan
* Infosys' Gopalakrishnan says NASSCOM's FY14 growth aim achievable
* Cadila Health gets US FDA final OK for Pioglitazone HCItablets
* United Breweries says no co shrs pledged to lenders of Kingfisher Air
Domestic events week ahead
*Feb 20: CPI for rural and farm labourers for January, by Labour Bureau.
* Feb 21: Budget session of Parliament to start with President Mukherjee addressing joint session of both houses.
* Feb 23: State assembly elections in Meghalaya and Nagaland.
Global events week ahead
* Feb 19: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
* Feb 20: Japan Trade Balance and All Industries Activity m/m, German PPI m/m, German 10‐y Bond Auction, USBuilding Permits and Core PPI m/m.
* Feb 21: FOMC Meeting Minutes, French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturingand Services PMI, Spanish 10‐y Bond Auction, French 10‐y Bond Auction, US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales
* Feb 21: FOMC Meeting Minutes, French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, Spanish 10‐y Bond Auction, French 10‐y Bond Auction, US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales
Weekly Sector Outlook and Stock Picks
Auto sector ‐ In range with negative bias this week
Shares of frontline automobile companies are expected to move in a narrow range this week due to lack of stock‐specific triggers and in run‐up to the Budget for 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar). Finance Minister P. Chidambaram will announce the Budget on Feb 28. A mild negative reaction in the auto stocks could be seen as oil marketing companies today announced hike in prices of diesel and petrol by nearly 0.5 rupees and 1.5 rupees, respectively.The auto industry that has been facing a slowdown in demand for over a year now has its hopes pinned on the Budgetfor a cut in excise duty and other measures for restoring growth in the sector. It has demanded a cut in excise duty on sub‐four‐metre vehicles to 10% from existing 12% and on larger vehicles to 22% from over 25% now. Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers has also opposed the proposed additional duty on diesel cars, which it feel will ground a segment that is at least doing well in an otherwise subdued environment. The petroleum ministry had proposed a hike
in excise duty on cars run on diesel in a bid reduce the demand for the fuel, which is highly subsidised by the
government.
Capital Goods sector ‐ Seen mixed this week
Shares of capital goods and engineering companies are seen mixed, as investors are seen cherry picking. Investors have already started building positions ahead of the Railway Budget and Union Budget for 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar). Bharat Heavy Electricals, Voltas and Thermax could see some upside due to their attractive valuations, good corporate governance, and strong fundamentals. Performance of these companies has been affected due to macroeconomic headwinds and not on account of weak fundamentals; hence they are likely to improve if the economy catches pace. Havells is also seen as one of the better companies, but its valuations are not as attractive as the others. Investors have mixed views on sector heavyweight Larsen & Toubro. L&T is seen nearing a breakdown in the near term till mega and ultra mega project contracts do not return to the market.
FMCG Sector ‐ Correction seen in large cap stocks this week
Shares of fast moving consumer goods companies that have large market capitalisation are seen correcting downward in the week ahead as current valuations are high following the run up in share prices over the past several weeks. Also, fresh investments in FMCG companies' shares will be limited by the attractiveness of shares of other rate sensitive sectors such as information technology and banks as the interest rate cycle has turned.Majors such as Hindustan Unilever and Godrej Consumer Products are expected to decline as their shares are currently at high values. Mid‐sized companies such as Marico and Emami, on the other hand, are seen relatively safeguarded from margin pressure due to lower raw material cost and as consumers get value‐conscious, substituting premium brands with less expensive ones. ITC may see some pre‐budget correction as a likely hike in excise duty on cigarettes could scare investors away.
Cement Sector ‐ Down this week on lower‐than‐expected demand rise
Shares of major cement companies are likely to trade with a negative bias this week as investors remain worried due to a much‐lower‐than‐expected pickup in demand. Cement demand, which typically picks up in October after a slump during monsoon, has remained subdued amid high interest rates that led to a slowdown in real estate and infrastructureactivity.
Investors had pegged hopes of a revival in demand from real estate sector after the Reserve Bank of India eased policyrates in January. But the nominal 25‐basis‐point cut in repo rate has not led to an improvement in real estate demand.Developers are thus still waiting for interest rates to ease further that would enable them to clear stocks and begin new projects.
Disappointing Oct‐Dec earnings for the top three cement makers—UltraTech Cement, ACC, and Ambuja Cements‐‐has also led to a negative sentiment for the sector. Earnings for the cement heavyweights are not expected to be much better sequentially in Jan‐Mar. Additionally, at the time of announcing Oct‐Dec earnings, all the three top players have said that even as prices of coal have started cooling, increase in diesel and petrol prices will continue to weigh on their margins. Increase in freight and forwarding costs, which dragged down profitability for Oct‐Dec, is also likely to remain a cause of concern in the near future.
IT Sector ‐ In range; cos say NASSCOM growth aim achievable
Shares of information technology companies are seen trading in a range this week as the positive of companies sayingthat the growth guidance set by industry body NASSCOM is achievable, will be offset by the correction following the rise over the past few weeks.
On Tuesday, NASSCOM said it expects Indian IT companies' exports to grow 12‐14% in 2013‐14 (Apr‐Mar), against 10.2%in the current financial year, on expectations of higher discretionary spending by clients and improved business environment. In November, NASSCOM had trimmed its growth guidance for 2012‐13 to "around 11%. In 2013‐14, NASSCOM expects Indian IT companies' domestic sales to grow 13‐15%. It expects the industry's exports at $82 bln‐$87 bln and sees domestic revenue rising $12 bln‐$15 bln.
Oil Sector ‐ RIL under pressure this week
Shares of the state‐owned oil marketing companies are likely to remain under pressure this week though they may open slightly positive on Monday after the hike in diesel and petrol price announced. With the weakness in the broader market expected to continue in the run up to the Union Budget to be announced on Feb 28 and crude price remaining firm, traders see little upside from current levels in the shares of Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd. However, these shares may open higher due to a sentimental boost on the nearly 1.5 rupees per litre hike in petrol price and 0.45 rupees per litre hike in diesel price.
Apart from the general weakness in market, the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar may also weigh on these stocks. The Indian currency has depreciated nearly 1.3% against the greenback since last Friday. Shares of Reliance Industries are also expected to see some more correction this week because of weakening global refining outlook.
Steel Sector ‐ Down this week; Tata Steel seen worst hit
Shares of major steel companies are seen down this week weighed down by disappointing Oct‐Dec results. Primary steel producers such as Steel Authority of India Ltd and Tata Steel Ltd reported poor earnings for the quarter ended December. Steel Authority posted a net profit of 4.84 bln rupees, down 23.4% on year. Lower net sales realisation due to subdued market combined with higher finance costs and royalty payments to states on coal proved a drag on the earnings.
Tata Steel reported a consolidated net loss of 7.63 bln rupees, compared with a loss of 6.02 bln rupees a year ago, due to weak performance in domestic operations. A fall in consolidated net sales and other income were also responsible for the loss widening.
Bank sector ‐ No clear trend; stock specific cues to be eyed
With no clear trend visible, bank stocks are seen moving in a tight band on stock‐specific cues in the coming week. Most market participants do not expect any significant moves ahead of the Union Budget announcement on Feb 28.
Central Bank of India and Dhanlaxmi Bank stocks are in focus after both banks announced capital raising programmes after market hours today. While Central Bank of India is set to issue shares on a preferential basis to the government at 78 rupees per share, Dhanlaxmi Bank's shareholders have approved raising 2 bln rupees via a qualified institutional Placement. Banks' stocks will also be in focus on account of the United Forum of Bank Unions announcing a two‐day nationwide strike on Feb 20‐21, which is expected to hit operations across the country, as nearly 1 mln employees in public sector and old private banks are expected to participate. The market continues to remain positive on State Bank of India shares as it believes that the bank is well poised to benefit from any pick up in the economic growth. The bank's tighter asset quality scrutiny and lower restructuring book are seen as key positives. Although SBI's Oct‐Dec net profit
rose just 4% on year, market took heart from segmental details.
Pharma sector ‐ Positive this week on high sales in Jan
The outlook on shares of major pharmaceutical stocks is positive for the coming week mainly on account of January sales being higher compared with a year ago. Sahres of GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd will be eyed as the company is scheduled to detail its Oct‐Dec earnings on Feb 19.
Telecom Sector ‐ Down this week on regulatory overhang
Major telecom stocks are expected to trade with a bearish bias this week as regulatory overhang over the sector remains. According to reports, Bharti Airtel Ltd and Reliance Communications Ltd are expected to be slapped with fresh notices from the Department of Telecommunications soon, demanding additional revenue share. Similar notices have already been served to Vodafone India Ltd. The demand notices would put further strain on the financial health of telecom companies that currently face monetary outgo in billions of rupees on account of high cost of spectrum and one‐time spectrum charge. Investors will eye whether companies would be successful in passing on the increased cost on to the subscribers and narrow down the difference between the headline tariff and the realised tariff.
The headline tariff in the country is in the range of 1.2 rupees to 1.5 rupees per minute, while average realised tariff is about 35 paise per minute on account of several discounts and special tariff offers given by companies to attract subscribers. Idea Cellular has started raising its base tariff across the country gradually and recently did away with some free minutes offering and special discounts. Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications have also reduced free minutes and promotional offers.
Market Range for Week 5980‐ 5800
Resistance – Nifty facing Resistance level @5920 level above this level it may go up to @5950 &@ 5990 level.
Support ‐ Support comes for market @5870 level for Nifty; below thislevel Nifty next support @5850 and @5800 will be the major support for Market.
Technical – Last week Nifty opened at 5920 & it made a high of 5969.Last week we have seen some downside in the market. Nifty made a low of 5853 & closed at 5887.Last week Nifty drag 82 points from its high & on weekly basis it closed at 16 point’s lower. Sensex made a weekly high of 19723 & a low of 19381 almost it drags 342 points in the week from its high.So overall last week we have seen some selling from higher level.
Weekly Chart View –
Last week we had expected market range (6020‐5800) market made a high of 5969 & low of 5853 so it hold our both side range.
In last week report we had mentioned, on daily chart market was below 50DMA & below trendline.On weekly chart osilator was showing negative divergens & it was below upward slopping line, because of all that we had mentioned use caution approach at higher level.Now on daily chart market below 50DMA but taking support at 100DMA & osilator showing some oversold position.On weekly chart market taking support short term moving avg on 20WMA, but below trendline & osilator still showing negative divergens.So overall 5870‐5850 will be major support for market unless we did not get close below that
we can see some consolidation, but close below that we can see some more downside in the market & upside still 5950‐5990 will be major resistance in the market
On Friday The S&P500 & the Nasdaq dipped between 0.1% & 0.2%, while the Dow cloded just barely higher.All three indexes were down slightly for the week, marking the first losing week for the Nasdaq this year.
Market Commentary –
The market could see more consolidation next week as investors turn cautious ahead of the Union Budget 2013‐14 to be presented in the Parliament on 28 February 2013. Investors will focus on changes, if any, in excise duty and service tax in the Budget. It remains to be seen if the government announces measures to revive weak investment growth. It also remains to be seen if the government announces more economic reforms. A key figure to watch out is the divestment Target for 2013‐14. It remains to be seen if the Budget contains a clear roadmap for the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST). There has been some debate over taxing the super‐rich. It remains to be seen if the Budget provides a clear roadmap to cap the government's subsidy bill. It also remains to be seen if there are measures to increase agriculture production to rein in food inflation.
The finance ministry in October 2012 announced a five‐year plan to cut fiscal deficit. The deficit target is 5.3% of gross domestic product for the current fiscal year through March, 4.8% in the next fiscal year, and 3% by the end of the year through March 2017.
The Budget Session of the Parliament will commence on 21 February 2013 and is likely to conclude on 10 May 2013. In order to enable the Standing Committees to consider the Demands for Grants of Ministries/Departments and prepare their Reports, the two Houses will adjourn for recess on 22 March 2013 to meet again on 22 April 2013.
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